India aims to become a USD 5 trillion economy by FY28 and USD 6.3 trillion by FY30, according to IMF projections.
To achieve "Viksit Bharat" (Developed India) by 2047, India needs an average growth rate of 8% for two decades.
IMF forecasts India’s GDP to grow at 10.2% in nominal USD terms from FY25 to FY30, reflecting strong economic potential.
Rupee expected to depreciate only by 0.5% annually, significantly lower than the 3.3% depreciation over the past three decades.
Current Account Deficit (CAD) projected to rise to 2.2% of GDP by FY30, indicating moderate external vulnerabilities.
Geo-economic fragmentation is replacing globalization, impacting supply chains and trade dynamics.
China’s dominance in global manufacturing and supply of critical minerals will affect India’s industrial ambitions.
India must reduce reliance on external factors and focus on domestic growth levers to sustain high economic growth.
Since the 1980s, globalization boosted economic growth, reducing poverty and expanding trade.
However, recent years have seen rising trade restrictions, sanctions, and deglobalization trends.
Global trade to GDP ratio has stagnated at 45%, down from its peak of 60% in 2012.
WTO reports a sharp rise in trade-restrictive measures, covering USD 887.7 billion in trade between October 2023 and 2024.
FDI is now concentrated among politically aligned countries, limiting investment opportunities for emerging markets.
India must navigate these challenges by focusing on self-reliance and strategic global partnerships.
China controls 45% of global manufacturing, a level of industrial dominance seen only twice before (UK during the Industrial Revolution, US post-WWII).
China’s leadership in Electric Vehicles (EVs), semiconductors, and renewable energy components creates global dependencies.
India needs to develop alternative supply chains to reduce dependence on Chinese imports.
China controls over 80% of the global solar panel supply chain, from raw materials to finished products.
China produces 70% of the world’s rare earth minerals, essential for EV batteries and renewable technologies.
India must secure critical mineral supplies and invest in domestic manufacturing of green energy components.
PLI Scheme for Advanced Chemistry Cell Manufacturing aims to develop India's battery ecosystem.
Khanji Bidesh India Limited (KABIL) was established to secure foreign mineral assets and reduce import dependence.
Future policies should focus on battery recycling, technology transfer agreements, and alternative energy solutions.
Excessive regulations limit economic growth, stifle innovation, and increase compliance costs.
Small businesses (MSMEs) suffer the most, as regulatory burdens discourage expansion and formalization.
Unnecessary compliance leads to inefficiencies, making Indian industries less competitive.
Jan Vishwas Act 2023 decriminalized 183 provisions across 42 laws, reducing legal hurdles for businesses.
Labour law simplifications allow flexible hiring, improving ease of doing business.
The introduction of PAN 2.0 facilitates seamless digital compliance and financial transactions.
Simplifying Licensing and Compliance
Reduce the number of approvals and licenses required for businesses.
Digitalize all major regulatory processes to enhance transparency.
Liberalizing Land and Construction Laws
Streamline land acquisition processes to reduce delays in industrial projects.
Revise outdated building codes that increase infrastructure costs.
Encouraging Risk-Based Regulation
Differentiate regulatory requirements based on business risk levels.
Reduce unnecessary compliance for low-risk businesses to boost MSME growth.
To achieve 8% growth, India needs an investment rate of 35% of GDP, up from the current 31%.
India must create 7.85 million non-farm jobs annually until 2030 to sustain economic momentum.
Developing high-quality infrastructure and digital connectivity will be crucial.
Bridging the education-employment gap is vital for long-term economic success.
New Education Policy (NEP) aims to align education with industry requirements.
Metro rail and bus rapid transit systems must expand to reduce dependence on private vehicles.
Efficient public transport can contribute to energy conservation and sustainable urbanization.
United States: "One-in, Two-out" regulatory model offsets new regulations by eliminating two existing ones.
United Kingdom: Better Regulation Framework ensures cost-effective governance.
Japan & South Korea: Flexible labor laws and business-friendly policies enhance competitiveness.
Ease of Doing Business 2.0 should focus on removing outdated regulatory bottlenecks.
State-level deregulation efforts must align with national economic growth goals.
Digital governance and AI-driven compliance monitoring can improve efficiency.
India’s Growth Strategy
India must achieve 8% annual growth to reach "Viksit Bharat 2047".
IMF projects India’s GDP at USD 6.3 trillion by 2030, making it the world’s third-largest economy.
Global Trade and Geo-Economic Fragmentation
Rising trade restrictions and protectionism are reshaping the global economy.
China’s dominance in manufacturing and green energy poses challenges for India.
Deregulation and Ease of Doing Business
Reducing regulatory burdens can enhance economic efficiency and innovation.
MSMEs will benefit from simplified compliance, improving job creation and industrial growth.
Energy Transition and Self-Reliance
India must secure its supply of critical minerals and invest in local green technology production.
China’s control over renewable energy supply chains highlights the need for domestic capacity building.
Policy Recommendations for Sustainable Growth
Systematic deregulation to remove unnecessary compliance burdens.
Investing in infrastructure, education, and skill development for long-term productivity.
Strengthening India’s global trade partnerships while reducing over-reliance on any single country.
